Allwin Skill

General vintage slot machine related topics.
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JC
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Skill v Chance

Post by JC »

Well, it would appear that Pennymachines has finally laid down the gauntlet.
In the good old days, Pennymachines and Bent Copper would have fought this out like men: with drawn swords, pistols or maybe even have thrown allwins at each other. However, in this enlightened age, it's doubtful the European Union would let us get away with that sort of politically incorrect (though most honorable) behavior.
So, here's what I propose: Following the success of the Coventry auction last year, Mechanical Memories Magazine will be organising a similar event in the spring (date to be announced), and I offer these two adversaries the opportunity to fight this out in public.

On receipt of positive response from you both, I'll come up with rules of engagement. But please - don't let this thread run to eight pages!

Jerry :D
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john t peterson
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by john t peterson »

A most bold and gracious offer, JC. May I be so precocious as to offer a suggestion? Have two allwins options: one game labeled "skill" and the other "chance."

Our two noble knights shall conduct the experiment for the allwin most close aligned to the philosophy to which they ascribe.

Given the breath of this thread, the winner shall be recognized as as "Sir Rants-a-lot."
Bent Copper
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by Bent Copper »

Bent Copper might secretely use some skill to try and win as well, and that would invalidate the results.
Dammit :-x . I was hoping nobody would think of that :D
pennymachines
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by pennymachines »

As Guest says, a normal player wouldn't deliberately play to lose, and that's the difficulty with any test we try to devise. If we let lots of people play five goes each, naturally they'll be playing to win whether they mean to or not (because that, as pointed out, is the normal way to play). If my score is lower than their aggregate score, it might just mean that even without "warming up" the average player is more skilful than I am.

By the same token, a tournament between Sir Lucky Bent Copper and Sir Pennymachines Skill might just prove that Sir Lucky is the true master of the game.

As I said before, my point is not that I'm a skilful player, but that any reasonably dextrous player (maybe 90% of all players) can and will use skill to improve their chances of winning on an allwin, and this is true whether or not they believe it's a game of skill or chance.

The only way around this I can think of is to get players aiming to win and then aiming to lose and see if there's any difference in the outcome. If so, it would suggest they can to some degree influence where the ball ends up - which is the question we are trying to answer.

Another seven pages to agree the terms of engagement?
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JC
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by JC »

I'm not sure aiming to lose proves anything. I think the most accurate and reliable method of setting up a skill v. chance test would be to have, say, 100 players each having one go, against one player having a hundred goes. Clearly, it would be inpossible for any player to exercise any skill with just one go, as he would have no reference. But with 100 goes, one player would easily develop a feel for the machine, and thus prove whether or not it is possible for a player to influence the outcome.
pennymachines
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by pennymachines »

I'm not sure aiming to lose proves anything.
Why not? If the players are given an equal number of attempts to win, it would be a clear test of whether or not they can influence the outcome. Anyway, give it a try yourself - you may decide, as I did, that losing requires just as much skill as winning.

In your proposal any skill should certainly be reduced by lack of "warm up", but 100 people taking one "random" shot each sounds a bit dull. Couldn't we come up with something more interactive and involving?

I'm sure we can think of something, but in the meantime I promise not to post again in this thread. I don't want to be banned from my own website for being too boring.

Hello? Is anybody listening...
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margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by margamatix »

Bent Copper wrote: Because they could.

It's the same as the Bryans device, just a sales gimmick. I don't believe there was a need for it.

What he said.

For the rhythm method to work, it would be necessary for each reel to turn by the exact same distance each and every time. If it could be stated that reel 1 turned for (say) 11 full revolutions and then 7 symbols, each and every time, then you could predict where it would stop next. But the simple fact is that one armed bandits do not work like this. For the reel to travel one symbol further or less is enough to render the system useless, and this, in reality, is what happens..

As for a modern AWP, the percentage payout can be adjusted by the engineer, as different territories have differing minimum payout rules. How would this be possible, without changing the symbols on the reels if the spin of the reels was random?

Why do you so often see a situation where seven nudges are needed to obtain a jackpot but the machine gives you six?


When I was a minicab driver, I used to take plenty of passengers who were skilled at emptying fruit machines using various systems, to the point where they made enormous sums of money doing it.

Funnily enough, they all seemed to live in bedsits on the top floors of semi-derelict B& B houses, and ask me if they could pay me next thursday when their Giro arrived.
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margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by margamatix »

I've just done a brief experiment using a Sega Diamond & Star mechanical bandit dating from the mid 1960s.

On each occasion, I started with three "BAR" symbols on the payout line (there is only one BAR on each reel) and I pulled the handle in an identical way each time and then noted where the reels stopped.

First pull- Plum Plum Bell

Second pull- Orange Cherry Bell

Third Pull- Orange Orange Lemon
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margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by margamatix »

3ReelRon wrote:
But the situation is bit different in the UK. See wikipedia.org/wiki/Slot_machine
...in the UK, a fruit machine takes on an amount above its payout percentage before winning, so if a payout is 95%, a machine will make the player lose £10 before paying out £9.50. As such, it is sensible to watch for people playing these machines but not winning as the likelihood of a win increases.
This is exactly what I am saying.

On a mechanical bandit, each play is completely unaffected by any play which has gone before, and is completely random- wins happen solely by the laws of mathematical chance. On a mechanical bandit, the likelihood of a win never increases or decreases and there is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" machine.

The fact that this is not the case with an AWP, and that an AWP can alter its likelihood of payng a win is enough to tell you that the reels are not stopping at random.
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john t peterson
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Re: Allwin Skill

Post by john t peterson »

My head is reeling now. I always knew I was not smart enough to gamble. The foregoing eight pages confirm it. :shock:
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